Fayetteville Snow Picture Getting Murkier, Not Clearer, As Storm Looms

We're just a few hours away from one of the more significant winter storms to hit Fayetteville and the Sandhills, and this is usually the time that we have a pretty clear picture of what's going on.

But as snow lovers in our region know, it's never that simple. There is still a strong consensus of a significant snowfall hitting virtually all of our area in the next 24 hours. That much has cleared up. But if you've been reading these updates the last couple of days, you know there are a few problems.

Afternoon models are showing some very different things. Usually by now, the various modeling platforms have at least basically the same thing going on. That's not true here. A couple of prominent models are now showing a far more significant dry slot associated with this storm.

We warned about this yesterday. Think of this storm like you would a hurricane or tropical storm coming up the East Coast (because this is basically that). When we're looking at rain bands on one of those storms, it's really easy to see where the moisture is going to hit, and when. You can visually see on radar when there are gaps between bands. A similar thing is going to play out with this storm. Some areas are going to see heavy downpours from parts of the bands that hit them. Other people are going to get just some weaker bands.

It's not quite as simple as all that, but it at least gives you a better picture of what's at play.

The National Weather Service is still sticking with the dry zone not being much of a player. They still show Fayetteville getting 8-12 inches of snow in the next 36ish hours. That's sort of a "consensus" number.

What has changed from the National Weather Service though, is that their "low-end amount" projection has dropped significantly. Models this morning had that number sitting around 5 inches. But now, it's at 1 inch. This is unlikely to be the case, but it's significant to note.

On the other end of the spectrum, they are also saying there's a 10 percent chance we'll get 14 inches of snow. That's not happening either. But you see the complexity in what's going on here.

Well, the reality is snow is coming. It'll start overnight in our area. We know that's going to happen. But we don't feel fully comfortable saying that 8 inches of snow will be on the ground at your house by Sunday morning. There's a very real chance that will happen. But there's a very real chance you'll only have 1 inch too.

Regardless, it's going to get very, very cold. You need to be prepared for wind chills below 0 Saturday and Sunday. That's incredibly cold for our area. So prepare your pipes. Leave faucets dripping. Don't leave animals out.

We'll be back later tonight once more consensus modeling happens. If it does. Otherwise, we'll see everyone tomorrow where we'll hope the odds are forever in your favor.