Fayetteville Is Getting Snow, But Just How Much Is Up In The Air – Literally

We have now reached the point in time in weather forecasting that things mostly start to come into clarity. In North Carolina, that's always with a catch: particularly when it comes to winter weather forecasting.

With just over 24 hours remaining before a very complicated storm system hits Fayetteville and essentially most of North Carolina, things are muddy, but one thing is clear: Snow is coming.

Yes, we've heard this before. So many times. And we've come up disappointed so many of those times. But there's really not much doubt about it this time around. A "bomb cyclone" is going to develop off the coast of North Carolina, and it's going to combine with an inland low system to bring precipitation into the area.

And if you haven't noticed, it's been pretty darn cold in the area. That's not going away. In fact, it's going to get much colder. When you combine cold weather with precipitation, you generally get snow.

Usually, when winter weather is forecast in our area, things get complicated because of warmer air above our heads: the dreaded warm nose. That nose takes snow and melts it before it falls down to the ground.

But this time, there really isn't a whole lot of warm air aloft to make that happen with. There's a slim chance it could impact some areas, but probably not here.

What COULD happen here, though, is a term you've seen play out, but probably not quite like this: a dry slot.

We've seen dry slots happen in tropical storm situations. That's when areas manage to escape much of any impact because of how the storm swirls and moves. Bands could impact some areas more than others. The same thing is true with this type of system, except it's snow.

A dry slot is almost certainly going to accompany this system. Where that falls will dramatically impact snow totals. As things stand currently, that is being forecast for an area north of here. Likely impacting a corridor along Hwy 1 toward Raleigh. But if that dry slot shifts, our totals go down in Fayetteville.

We'll see how things pan out with that.

Fayetteville is getting snow. We feel pretty comfortable with saying that at this point.

Currently, the National Weather Service has our area at a minimum of 5 inches of snow. That's likely to be if the dry slot impacts us here. But the high end also shows we could get 17 inches of snow. That's not likely to happen at all.

What's most likely is that we'll see somewhere in the range of 8 inches of snow. Some areas will see a bit more or less. Just like with the rain that comes from a tropical storm.

We hate to break it to you, but this snow will be light and fluffy. Super pretty to look at, but not great for snowmen and the like.

And you're also not going to like that we could have wind chills around -5 degrees Saturday night.

That also will keep that snow on the ground a little longer, as temps won't get above freezing until mid-day Monday.

We'll update you more Friday as things get clearer. But be ready, snow is a reality for Fayetteville. Maybe.